With just over a month to go before the next South African general election, the ANC, Africa's oldest liberation movement, is seriously at risk of losing power.
Whilst the ANC still holds a massive majority particularly amongst the poor and rural voters, there are several headwinds which are stopping the ANC from gaining any ground against the opposition.These headwinds are so strong that even senior members of the party believe there is a chance the ANC may lose this election.
"by a far, far, far reduced majority from what it was before"Kgalema Motlante, former South African President
The Zuma legacy has done a lot of damage to many aspects of the country: the national energy supplier, Eskom, is so severely in debt that even the state's own coffers are struggling to keep up with the black hole of its finances. This leads to serious problems on the ground where viable businesses cannot actually operate due to lack of electricity but it also seriously damages the ANC's credibility nationally and internationally.
Another key issue is the forces pulling the ANC apart internally. On the one hand, we have the purportedly socialist (or rapaciously corrupt, depending on your point of view) faction of Ace Magashule and on the other the pro-business, centre right politics of the president, Cyril Ramaphosa.
Whether the Eskom crisis and internal faction fighting are enough to sink the ANC has yet to be seen: one thing is clear is that if it wins, it will be 'far, far, far reduced majority from what it was before' – and that's the words of former president Kgalema Motlanthe.